Who is the future Monster?

11 Jun 2010

I was talking yesterday with Marius and Mihai (separately) about who the future mammoth of the IT/Software/Internet business will be in the next years. I was supporting the Microsoft -> Google -> Facebook route, but Marius is an outward and passionate opponent of social networks (Facebook in particular). So I especially dedicate these thoughts and information to the subject:

History: It is now relatively clear that, in the 90s, Microsoft was the company that best understood it was time to make the transition from big, institutional computers (expensive, hyper-dedicated software), to personal computers with a “commodity” type software. MS-DOS, Windows, Office made the rules in the software business. They redefined an entire industry. Microsoft battled IBM, Novell, Linux and defeated them through technology and integrability, but especially through vision and marketing. And as long as the competition was fought on their terrain, they were always number 1.

The present: in 2000, Google (and others, but let’s focus on the industry leaders) understood that in order to overthrow Microsoft they need to change the rules of the game. And they moved an entire industry from desktop to internet/cloud. Suddenly the huge step made by MS 15 years before (turning computers into a commodity) became obsolete and using information in common and the possibility to find useful information in huge data bases became the new paradigm. An old Microsoft, secluded in the model where it knows is king, trying to battle an evolution it doesn’t understand, is fighting an entrepreneurial Google where each project is built by a team made up of 3 people with practically unlimited budgets, “Flower Power” like. What do the people at MS do? After 2003, when they realize they must accept that the battle is now fought on a different terrain, they prove that they don’t understand the game at all: they change Google’s competition from MSN to Live, then to Bing (question – does anyone know what Bing is? Google’s equivalent for MS…). And relatively quickly Google is bigger than MS.

The future: Life doesn’t stand still. What has happened in recent years is that “Social Networking” has become the new sensation. A new model of storing information – based on wiki, blog, social networks – makes us look for information elsewhere: not in the clouds, in a quick/complex but completely moronic (excuse me…) search engine, but in the advice received from a group of friends, people you potentially trust. And, most of all, who are not machines… In this context, Facebook seems to be the one who made the big step. The world is already frightened that Facebook is holding so much information, just as 8 years ago the world was scared that Google was organizing/holding all the information on the internet. People are no longer communicating on email but on Facebook (WTF???). Photos are no longer stored on Flickr but on Facebook. We are not searching on Google but on Facebook. We are not playing on any other website but Facebook. Ouch! – it seems something will happen in 2010!

A few additional comments:

A few days ago, TechCrunch considered (and I thank you, deedee, for the information) that, in the UK, visits on Social Networks already surpassed Classical Search visits.
My daughter, yesterday: “Dad – she said – maybe you can help me open a FB account, please!” I encourage entrepreneurship so I told her she can open one for herself ☺. As I was curious, I asked “Why are you opening a FB account?” “Well, to talk to my friends!!!” Sort of “Duuuh!!! What don’t you understand???” Email. She has one and she’s been using it for 7-8 years. Yahoo Messenger, the same! But – no, now we are talking on FB. If it were easier, I would understand, at least… Or maybe I’m just getting old 🙁
Why FB in particular? You will say they weren’t the first and perhaps not even the best. Yes, you are right: but MS didn’t invent the Operating System with windows and mouse either and yet they were successful with Windows. Google wasn’t the first Search Engine (there were 15 others when Google appeared), and Youtube wasn’t the first either. A concept needs to mature and it seems FB caught the right moment.
One final observation: MS reigned for 15 years, Google for 10, we expect FB to reign for 5. IveyBusinessJournal says that “In 1957, it took the average company 75 years to get on the S&P 500 index. Now it takes only 15 years. In another 10-15 years, most of the companies in the index will be unknown.”
I fooled you. I have one more thing to say: MS’s investment in FB 3 years ago might have been Bill’s last vision before leaving the ship. One last message for those who want to understand: “Guys, you missed an entire phase! At least be smart enough and leap to the next one!”

All in all: Marius, I don’t like Facebook either! I can even confess that I don’t entirely understand it, as a business model and from the point of view of end-user utility. But one thing is for sure – it exits.

Later edit: Marius’s opinion on the subject, opinion that I don’t entirely contradict, but with which I am not in total agreement either.

(English version by Teodora Popescu)

Original Romanian versionCine este viitorul Monstru?

Vorbeam ieri cu Marius si Mihai (separat) despre cine va fi in urmatorii ani viitorul mamut al industriei IT/Software/Internet. Eu sustineam traseul Microsoft -> Google -> Facebook, dar Marius este un declarat si impatimit adversar al retelelor sociale (Facebook in particular). Cu dedicatie speciala, cateva ganduri si date pe subiect:

Istorie: Este acum relativ clar ca in anii ’90 Microsoft a fost compania care a inteles cel mai bine ca e momentul sa faca trecerea de la computerele mari, institutionale (scumpe, software superdedicat), la computerele personale, cu software de tip „comodity”. MS-DOS, Windows, Office au facut regulile businessului software. Au redefinit o industrie intreaga. Microsoft s-a batut pe rand cu IBM, Novell, Linux si i-a dovedit atat prin tehnologie si integrabilitate, cat mai ales prin viziune si marketing. Si cata vreme s-a batut cu competitia pe terenul lor, a fost mereu numarul 1.

Prezent: in anii 2000, Google (si altii, dar sa ne focalizam pe liderii industriei) a inteles ca pentru a detrona pe Microsoft trebuie sa schimbe regulile jocului. Si a mutat o industrie intreaga de pe desktop in internet/cloud. Brusc pasul urias facut de MS cu 15 ani inainte (comoditizarea calculatoarelor) a devenit demodat si utilizarea unor informatii comune, posibilitatea gasirii de informatii utile in baze de date imense a devenit noua paradigma. Un Microsoft imbatranit, inchistat in modelul in care se stie stapan, incercand sa impiedice o evolutie pe care nu o intelege, se lupta cu un Google antreprenorial, in care fiecare proiect este construit de o echipa de 3 oameni, cu bugete practic nelimitate, pe modelul „Flower Power”. Ce face MS? Dupa 2003, cand realizeaza ca trebuie sa accepte batalia si pe acest teren, ne demonstreaza ca nu intelege deloc acest joc: schimba pe rand competitia lui Google din MSN in Live, apoi in Bing (intrebare – stie cineva de Bing? Echivalentul Google al lui MS….). Si relativ repede Google e mai mare ca MS.

Viitor: Viata nu sta pe loc. Ce s-a intamplat in ultimii ani este ca „Social Networking” face furori. Un nou model de stocare a informatiei – bazat pe wiki, blog, retele sociale – ne face sa ne cautam informatie in alta parte: nu in nori, intr-un motor de cautare rapid/complex dar complet imbecil (scuzati…), ci sfaturi intr-o gasca de prieteni, oameni in care potential ai incredere. Si mai ales nu sunt masini… In acest context, Facebook pare sa fie acela care a facut pasul cel mare. Deja lumea este speriata de cata informatie detine Facebook, la fel cum era speriata acum 8 ani de faptul ca Google organizeaza/detine toata informatia internetului. Deja lumea nu mai comunica pe mail, ci pe Facebook (WTF???). Pozele nu se mai tin pe Flickr, ci pe Facebook. Nu mai cautam pe Google, ci pe Facebook. Nu ne mai jucam aiurea, ci pe Facebook. Auch! – pare ca ceva se va intampla in anii 2010!

Cateva comentarii suplimentare:

Zilele trecute socotea TechCrunch (multumesc deedee pentru informatie) ca in UK vizitele pe Social Networks au depasit deja vizitele de Classical Search.
Fiica mea ieri: „Dad – zice – poate ma ajuti si pe mine sa-mi fac cont pe FB te rog!” Eu incurajez antreprenoriatul, asa ca ii raspund ca isi poate face singura :-). Curios intreb „Da’ de ce iti faci?” „Pai ca sa discut cu prietenii!!!!”. Un fel de „D’oh!!! Ce nu intelegi??”. Mail? Are si foloseste de 7-8 ani. La fel YM! Dar – nu, acum discutam pe FB. Macar daca ar fi comod in vre-un fel…. Sau poate am imbatranit eu 🙁
De ce FB in particular? Veti spune ca nu au fost primii si poate nu sunt nici cei mai buni. Da, aveti dreptate: dar nici MS nu a inventat Sistemul de Operare cu ferestre si mouse, si totusi ei au avut succes cu Windows. Nici Google nu a fost primul Search Engine (erau vre-o 15 cand a aparut), nici Youtube nu a fost primul. Un concept trebuie sa se coaca si pare ca FB a prins momentul.
O ultima obsevatie: MS a avut 15 ani de domnie, Google 10, ne asteptam ca FB sa aiba 5. IveyBusinessJournal zice ca „In 1957, speranta de prezenta a unei companii in S&P 500 index era de 75 de ani. Astazi este de doar 15 ani. Peste inca 10-15 ani, majoritatea companiilor din index vor fi necunoscute.”
V-am pacalit, mai am una: Este posibil ca investitia de acum 3 ani a lui MS in FB sa fi fost ultima viziune a lui Bill inainte sa paraseasca corabia. Un ultim mesaj pentru cine vrea sa inteleaga: “Baieti, ati ratat o etapa intreaga! Macar fiti destepti si faceti saltul la urmatoarea!”

Una peste alte: Marius, nici mie nu-mi place Facebook! Pot chiar sa marturisesc ca nu il inteleg complet. Nici ca model de business, nici ca utilitate pentru end-user. Dar este clar ca exista.

Later edit: Parerea lui Marius despre subiect, cu care nu sunt in contradictie majora. Dar nici in consens total.

Tags: Facebook, Google, Microsoft, Social Network, Vision

Comments

webber

June 11th, 2010 at 9:36 am

nici mie nu imi place in mod special Facebook, ar culmea e ca trebuie sa fii pe el, cu afacerea sau cu blogul, desi in RO domina mai mult HI5, care pe bune ca nu il inteleg. 🙂

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